AGP Executive Report

Farm Finance Pressure: USDA’s September forecast pegs 2026 net farm income at $158.4B, down $4.3B (and -5.5% in inflation-adjusted terms) as production expenses rise 4.5% toward $493B, with fertilizer, fuel and livestock costs driving the squeeze; direct payments are projected to jump to $47.4B and farm debt to top $605B. Energy Costs for Ag: Diesel is spiking again—Virginia hit a record near $5.95/gal—adding to harvest-season strain as U.S.-Iran tensions push crude above $100. Trade War Hits Dairy: The White House announced a Sept. 29 ban on many Canadian dairy products, alcohol and motorcycles, plus procurement exclusions, as Canada’s retaliatory tariffs continue to disrupt cross-border agri-food flows. Ethanol Watch: U.S. ethanol production eased slightly while inventories rose; blending demand stayed mixed, with exports up week-over-week. Food Supply Chain & Biosecurity: Idaho’s animal health lab expanded bird flu PCR testing after USDA certification, speeding results for dairy surveillance. Corn Breeding Risk: Researchers warn critically low genetic diversity in key corn breeding stock could limit future hybrid performance under climate stress. Dairy Processing Investment: Westby Cooperative Creamery unveiled $14M in automation to modernize cottage cheese production. Antitrust in Sugar: General Mills, Mars and McKee Foods sued sugar producers alleging coordinated price-fixing via shared data.

US-Canada Trade War Hits Agriculture: The White House and USTR rolled out new 50% “stacking tariffs” and import bans on Canadian goods after Canada’s counter-tariffs took effect, escalating pressure on farm inputs and food markets. Beef Policy Push: USDA announced initiatives to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd, including the Ranchers First Initiative and insurance tools aimed at keeping breeding heifers, as lawmakers and ranch groups debate how foreign beef moves could affect long-term herd health. Diesel and Input Squeeze: Reports tied record diesel prices and higher energy costs to rising farm operating pressure, with farmers warning margins are getting squeezed. Citrus Land Shrinkage: Florida’s citrus acreage continues to fall sharply, with growers and advocates urging a stop to the slide as development and corporate shifts reduce production. China Soybeans Demand: Reuters reported China buying about 1 million tons of U.S. soybeans ahead of Xi’s visit, a reminder of how quickly export demand can swing. Pollinator Habitat Efforts: A “Monarch Highway” concept is gaining attention as states and groups look to restore milkweed and native habitat along major roadsides.

Trade War Fallout: The U.S. escalated its Canada fight with a Sept. 29 ban on Canadian dairy, motorcycles and many alcohol products, while Canada’s $20B counter-tariffs took effect—hits that ripple into farm inputs, processing, and household food costs. Diesel Squeeze on Farms: Farmers in the Midwest say record diesel prices are forcing fewer field passes and higher hauling costs for crops and dairy, with national retail diesel averaging about $5.60/gal. Dairy Price Signals: USDA’s August Class III milk price rose to $16.64/cwt but remains below last year, as feed costs climb and margins tighten. Water Rules & Farm Certainty: Farm Bureau backed the proposed WOTUS approach, arguing it would give farmers clearer boundaries under Clean Water Act jurisdiction. Invasive Species, Local Funding: Maryland Congressman Andy Harris announced USDA grants to expand invasive catfish processing to protect Chesapeake Bay fisheries. Regenerative Agriculture Push: Grupo Bimbo says it has expanded regenerative farmland to 500,000+ hectares, training hundreds of farmers on soil-health practices. Market Access Upgrade: Maryland announced a new grain transloading facility at the Port of Baltimore to speed container exports for soybeans, corn and wheat.

U.S.-Canada Trade War Hits Agriculture: Trump ordered Canadian-origin products removed from U.S. government contract lists, citing “no reciprocity” after Canada’s retaliatory tariffs; the move targets sectors that include dairy and agricultural equipment. Import Bans on Farm Inputs: The White House also announced bans on a range of Canadian goods— including whey protein concentrates and other dairy items—set to take effect Sept. 29, escalating pressure on food and beverage supply chains. Dairy Shock in the Midwest: Wisconsin dairy producers face new tariff impacts as Canada adds an extra 25% tariff on cheese, with 90% of Wisconsin milk going into cheese. SNAP Cuts Threaten School Meals: Federal SNAP reductions could ripple into school cafeterias, putting free breakfast and lunch at risk for more than a million children. Cattle Industry Updates: Arkansas Cattlemen’s Association held its 68th annual convention and trade show, focusing on herd management, animal health, and cattle markets. Food Safety: USDA recalled imported pork guanciale due to possible listeria contamination, a Class I risk. Wildlife Management: Worthington, Idaho approved using USDA sharpshooters again to cull deer after a prior program killed 100 deer.

US-Canada Trade War: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods (15%–50%) kicked in after talks stalled, hitting sectors that include dairy, agricultural equipment, steel, appliances, and electronics—raising costs and threatening demand for U.S. exporters, with Michigan and Wisconsin farmers and food processors flagged as exposed. Diesel Shock: Diesel prices surged to a record $5.85/gal nationally, pushing up transportation and harvest costs and adding inflation pressure across the food supply chain. Farm Policy Watch: A farm-bill advocate says the Senate may still move a bill before year-end, potentially via an omnibus “must-pass” package in the lame-duck session. USDA Grain Storage Rules: USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service set new licensing requirements for emergency and temporary grain storage, including separate inventory records and added justification for emergency space. Soybean Quality Push: The U.S. Soybean Board’s annual quality survey is encouraging farmers to submit samples at harvest to help market U.S. soy quality globally. Food Safety: USDA recalled 1,500+ pounds of imported ready-to-eat pork products due to potential listeria contamination. Local Agriculture Impacts: Wisconsin dairy and other rural producers are bracing for tariff fallout, while Oregon’s Rogue Valley wine is bucking the downturn with rising recognition and production.

Canada-U.S. Tariff Escalation: Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on about $20B of U.S. goods kicked in just after midnight Tuesday, with duties from 15% to 50% hitting sectors that include steel, dairy, cheese, appliances, clothing, cosmetics, and farm equipment—raising uncertainty for USMCA reviews. Food Safety: USDA/FSIS issued a Class I recall of 1,500+ pounds of imported pork guanciale (pork jowl) due to possible Listeria contamination, affecting products distributed across multiple states. Beef Policy: Trump signed executive orders aimed at helping farmers process and sell their own meat, plus a review of regulations that could allow mandatory country-of-origin labeling. Farm & Water Funding: South Dakota DANR is accepting applications for Clean Water Act Section 319 nonpoint source grants (deadline Oct. 1), targeting runoff from agricultural and other lands. Markets & Trade Disruptions: Chicago wheat jumped as Black Sea shipping disruptions from attacks kept grain exports near a halt, pushing buyers toward alternatives. Local Agriculture & Community: Fair season continues with agricultural showcases at county fairs in Pennsylvania, while Ohio paused a SNAP sugary-drink ban at USDA’s request.

Beef Trade Pressure: Wyoming ranchers say a 90-day waiver allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef imports is roiling cattle markets after a sharp overnight drop in cattle values, even as the White House argues it will lower prices for consumers. Drought Watch: Maine’s drought is worsening, with severe conditions expanding, dry wells reported, and groundwater recharge lagging after a weak snowpack—raising stakes for agriculture, water supplies, and wildfire risk. Tariff Escalation: Canada confirmed retaliatory tariffs on $27.6B of U.S. goods (up to 50%), including agricultural equipment and food-related categories, after trade talks broke down—adding uncertainty for farm-linked supply chains. Food Safety: USDA issued a recall for about 1,513 pounds of imported ready-to-eat pork jowl products due to possible listeria contamination, affecting specific “guanciale” items shipped to multiple states. Farm Inputs: Farmers are bracing for harvest with fertilizer, fuel, and equipment costs still squeezing budgets, with USDA officials pointing to financing and production-cost relief efforts. Policy/Rules: South Carolina delayed SNAP “Healthy Food” restrictions until Nov. 1, keeping some sweetened beverage purchases eligible while legal review continues. Local Land & Water: Oklahoma and other rural areas face ongoing land-use and infrastructure planning pressures, including county-level decisions that can affect agriculture and property access.

Beef Policy Shock: USDA says it’s launching the “Ranchers First Initiative” to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd, including new steps to expand local processing and push more American beef in federal spending, as ranchers brace for fallout from foreign-beef import moves. Fuel Costs & Farm Economics: Diesel and gas hit record Labor Day highs, with diesel around $5.85 a gallon, driven by geopolitical strain and refinery issues—raising transport and farm input pressure. Avian Flu Tech Push: Texas A&M researchers are testing far-UVC light to reduce airborne pathogens in commercial poultry houses, aiming to blunt ongoing HPAI losses. Food Safety & Imports: CBP seized an illegal shipment at Chicago O’Hare—dried rodents and raw beef—highlighting strict U.S. biosecurity rules on meat and wildlife. Local Orchard Fallout: Green Bench Orchard in Montana canceled its u-pick season after a May freeze wiped out most apples and fire blight later appeared. Labor & Agriculture Workforce: A Supreme Court ruling threatens work authorization for thousands of Haitian health care workers in Florida, a reminder of how legal changes can quickly ripple into staffing shortages across rural and service sectors tied to agriculture communities.

Energy Costs for Farms: Diesel hit a new record above $5.85 a gallon, with Michigan running near $5.88, driven by U.S.-Iran supply disruptions and pushing higher costs through trucking, crop harvests, construction and food delivery. USDA & Farm Credit: USDA is moving to streamline and modernize farm loan access and update farm data collection, aiming to get producers faster help and improve how farm information is gathered. Bees Under Threat (Georgia): Georgia agriculture officials say they’re still tracking and eradicating yellow-legged hornets, reporting 1,090 found and 60 nests in August, and urging residents to watch for “hawking” near hives. Ranchers & Beef Policy: Trump signed executive orders aimed at strengthening the U.S. cattle industry and beef processing, with ranchers and farm groups warning the plans may not deliver real relief. Food Safety & Water Quality: New research links nutrient pollution in rivers to nitrogen and phosphorus stored in soils and groundwater, slowing water recovery even after reductions. Labor & Farm Workers: A bill would mandate overtime pay for farm workers in Arizona, adding pressure on how farm labor rules are enforced.

USDA & farm policy: USDA says it’s moving to update farm data collection, aiming to modernize how farm information is gathered. Beef supply & prices: Trump signed an executive order to bolster the American cattle industry and push ranchers toward more self-processing; Farm Bureau and cattle groups warn that importing large volumes of foreign beef could slow herd rebuilding and hurt ranchers. Wolves & ranch impacts: Trump signed an order that could remove endangered protections for gray and Mexican wolves, giving Interior 90 days to decide recovery status—raising fears some ranchers could be allowed to kill wolves. Extreme weather resilience: Kansas wheat farmers describe drought-stressed yields, while researchers and a small number of producers look to perennial grains as a longer-term hedge against extreme weather. Biosecurity at the border: US Customs seized dead “African mice” and beef at Chicago O’Hare, citing zoonotic and livestock disease risks. Ag tech & food safety: Arkansas researchers are using AI to identify bacteria linked to how long beef stays red, targeting billions lost to discounted or discarded meat. Local land fights: In Pennsylvania, one farmer rejected a large AI data-center offer and instead used a conservation easement to keep the land agricultural.

USDA Credit Access: USDA says it’s streamlining and modernizing farm loan processing to cut red tape and speed direct and guaranteed credit to farmers and ranchers. Beef Policy & Politics: Iowa cattle leaders and lawmakers are pushing for pasture expansion, conservation, and better risk management as drought and feed costs squeeze producers; the debate is spilling into politics, including fallout from Trump’s ground beef import move. Wolf Protections & Ranch Impacts: Trump signed an order to review Endangered Species Act protections for gray and Mexican wolves, potentially easing lethal removal rules and compensation for livestock losses. Local Cattle Skills Training: University of Minnesota Extension will host a hands-on Beef Skills Workshop focused on calving, reproduction, body/udder/foot scoring, and animal handling. Animal Transport Enforcement: New York State Police arrested a Pennsylvania man accused of transporting horses through New York to Canada for slaughter and human consumption. Food Safety/Harvest Risk: Arkansas rice residue burning is raising wildfire and smoke concerns as drought and burn bans collide with harvest timing. California Dairy Biogas: A new biogas-to-hydrogen project at a large dairy is drawing attention after regulators assigned it an unusually low carbon rating under California’s LCFS. Farm Labor & Immigration Tensions: Sonoma County Farm Bureau and immigrant advocates clash over how local jail information is shared with ICE amid the broader immigration crackdown. Agriculture Tech/Business: CNMI Innovation Incubator is taking applications for its next cohort, including agriculture and food innovation tracks.

USDA Rural Leadership: Iowa farmer Glen Smith was confirmed as USDA undersecretary for rural development, a move aimed at boosting rural infrastructure and farm-focused programs. Beef Policy Shake-Up: Trump signed orders to help ranchers process and sell beef more directly, while USDA’s “Ranchers First” push targets a 75-year-low cattle herd with new risk tools and market enforcement. Trade Tensions Hit Farms: The US-Canada tariff fight is escalating, with Canada set to retaliate as cross-border supply chains and agricultural equipment and dairy markets brace for impact. Credit Access for Farmers: USDA is streamlining the farm loan process so producers can get approvals faster, as costs, debt, and tighter margins squeeze operations. Food Safety Watch: California health officials linked a Salmonella outbreak to eggs from Happy Hens poultry farm in Ramona, with genetic testing tying cases to the operation. Public Health Strain: A Reuters report on cyclosporiasis highlights how food-safety systems are struggling under long-term underfunding and recent cuts. Global Food Prices: FAO says the global food price index hit its highest level since late 2022, with sugar and cereal prices rising. Diesel Costs: Labor Day travel and hauling are getting hit by record-high diesel prices, adding pressure to agriculture and the broader economy. Local Ag & Water: California agencies are emphasizing cold-water management for salmon survival as heat raises river temperatures.

Trade & Costs: Canada-U.S. tariff escalation is set to hit more American-linked goods, with analysts warning the dispute is politicized but still leaving room for a negotiated reset. Farm Inputs: USDA’s Richard Fordyce says the U.S. is moving toward enough domestic nitrogen fertilizer to meet farmer needs and export surplus, helped by natural gas access. Weather Stress: Missouri soybean models are cutting yield expectations as drought and heat push crops toward smaller seeds and lower test weights; livestock producers are buying hay earlier as forage tightens. Producer Sentiment: Purdue surveys show farmers’ future expectations have jumped, even as they flag rising input costs. Rural Economy: USDA projects net cash farm income up nationally, but down in Washington and Western Oregon, with higher labor costs and weaker fruit and milk payments driving the drop. Cattle & Beef Policy: Oklahoma cattle groups criticize a short-term Trump policy allowing more imported lean beef trimmings at lower tariff rates, saying it could undercut herd rebuilding. Food Assistance: SNAP cuts are expected to ripple into school meal eligibility, threatening free breakfast and lunch for more children. Energy Shock: Diesel hit a record $5.85/gallon, raising operating costs for agriculture and freight. USDA Service Access: USDA Rural Development is expanding in-person community access in rural Maine via monthly staffing at service centers.

Beef & Trade Tensions: Oklahoma cattle groups are blasting a Trump move that temporarily boosts imports of lean beef trimmings at lower tariff rates, arguing it could discourage herd rebuilding and hit ranchers right when they’re making long-term decisions. Cattle Policy: Virginia cattle leaders say Trump’s foreign-beef plan won’t “move the needle” on grocery prices, while warning it undercuts U.S. producers. USDA & Animal Health: USDA issued a federal warning to Utah State University after the deaths of 82 naked mole rats, with watchdog groups calling for staff to be removed and facing potential prosecution. Food Safety: Michigan’s Cyclospora outbreak keeps climbing, topping 14,700 cases, with the CDC tracking a multi-state outbreak tied to iceberg lettuce. Ag Supply Chain: AGP in David City, Nebraska completed the first-ever U.S. unit train shipment of soybean oil, aiming to strengthen domestic renewable fuels supply. Drought: Extreme drought expanded across Puerto Rico, with 41% in the worst category. Wildlife & Biosecurity: Texas A&M researchers are testing far-UVC light to reduce airborne avian influenza in poultry houses.

Beef Price Probe: The DOJ is investigating Walmart, Costco and other major retailers over persistently high beef prices, as the administration pushes a short-term import plan that critics say could undermine the U.S. cattle herd. Cattle Market Pushback: Lawmakers and cattle groups are urging Trump to prioritize long-term market stability for ranchers, warning that below-market foreign beef imports pick winners and losers. USDA Drought Relief: USDA approved an expanded drought disaster declaration for Puerto Rico, adding municipalities so farmers and eligible businesses can access emergency loans and other assistance. Water Stress in the West: Taos approved Phase 3 municipal water restrictions amid severe drought, highlighting how local systems are tightening supplies. Drought Map Watch: The U.S. Drought Monitor shows much of Columbia County in moderate drought, with burn bans in multiple counties as wildfire risk rises. Farm Sentiment: Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose in August, with producers more optimistic about finances and exports despite ongoing uncertainty. Weather Risk: Forecasters warn a “supersized” El Niño could reshape winter 2026-2027 rainfall, drought and snowfall patterns. Orchard Tech: Cornell’s orchard robotics effort got a major USDA grant aimed at reducing labor strain in high-risk, labor-heavy fruit operations. Trade Tensions: New U.S.-Canada tariffs are set to hit multiple sectors, raising concerns about demand and costs for farm-linked industries.

USDA & beef herd policy: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted “Ranchers First” efforts at Iowa’s Farm Progress Show, including new support aimed at rebuilding a cattle herd at a 75-year low—while ranchers say the details still raise questions. Beef imports controversy: A private Oval Office meeting tied to JBS and a new 90-day window for additional imported beef drew sharp backlash from cattle groups and legal commentators, who questioned the timing and whether it undercuts domestic producers. Trade war pressure on farms: Canada retaliated with up to 50% tariffs on U.S. goods, including farm equipment and dairy, as border-state businesses brace for higher costs and uncertainty. Animal health & biosecurity: CBP is helping USDA fight New World screwworm by supporting sterile fly movement, training, and rapid response coordination, with cases concentrated in Texas. Farm labor enforcement: A Santa Maria man was sentenced to federal prison for exploiting H-2A farmworkers through visa charges and underpayment. Rural community support: Keystone Cooperative awarded funds to cut school lunch debt in rural districts, tying farm-linked energy co-op dollars to food security. Conservation & land use: A Southwest Florida conservation op-ed argues that protecting only big wild areas isn’t enough—private landscaping choices like turfgrass can drive water and chemical pollution. Research & innovation: USDA approved a bioengineered American chestnut aimed at restoring blight-tolerant trees, while Idaho researchers reported a newly discovered spider species. Weather outlook: The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its 2026 winter forecast, including colder and snowier conditions for parts of the Appalachians and nearby regions.